Hebei's new crown epidemic is still continuing. As of January 15, Hebei reported 90 new confirmed cases, with a total of 941 confirmed cases. Most industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were affected, especially the steel industry.
Affected by this, the three cities in Hebei were closed, road transportation was blocked, some places were closed early, construction sites were suspended, and now it is in the traditional off-season, steel traders' shipments are greatly reduced, and many other negative factors, steel futures prices remain It is relatively strong, and even saw a sharp rise today. What are the reasons?
Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, said that China’s economy is expected to be better this year, and steel prices will show high volatility in the short term. The futures prices rebounded sharply this time, which may have something to do with the maintenance of the Tangshan Steel Plant.
A number of products in the futures market experienced substantial increases. The monitoring data of the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform shows that as of January 15, the closing price of the main contract of rebar was 4360 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 1.85%, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year; hot rolled coils The closing price of the main contract was 4489 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 1.35%, and a year-on-year increase of 25.6%; the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 1053 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous day 15 yuan, an increase of 1.45%, an increase of 59% year-on-year.
Compared with the futures market, the spot market is relatively stable, and the fluctuations of various products are not large. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, as of January 15, the price of Grade 3 rebar (Φ25mm) in the top ten major cities in China was 4302 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan from the previous day, which was not much. However, the price is still at a high level, with a month-on-month increase of 226 yuan, an increase of 5.6%, and a year-on-year increase of 503 yuan, an increase of 13.3%.
According to Ma Lihua, the information director of the Electric Furnace Steel Plant Department of Lange Steel Network, first of all, this cycle of goods has fallen for 3 consecutive days, and the magnitude is relatively large, but the decline will not be in place in one step, and it is more normal for a rebound; secondly, January 15 is On the last trading day of the 01 contract, the number of iron ore registered warehouse receipts closed yesterday was much smaller than the contract holdings, and there was a situation of forced position; in addition, there were external (the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech and the Biden stimulus plan) and the domestic (MLF continued to overtake Expected) the impact of favorable stimulus. On the whole, Ma Lihua said that the continuity of futures rise is not strong, and short-term steel prices are still in a downward trend.
Wang Guoqing said that the high prices of raw materials have also formed a strong support for steel prices. Steel prices are still at a high level, and winter storage is still a difficult choice.
The monitoring data of the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform showed that as of January 14, the Platts iron ore price index was US$171.5/ton, an increase of US$2.5/ton from the previous day, an increase of 11% month-on-month and 80% year-on-year. In addition, the coke market also landed in the 13th round on January 13, and the current price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke has reached 2,600 yuan/ton.
At present, it is the traditional low season in the steel market, coupled with the impact of the Hebei epidemic, the three places of Shijiazhuang, Xingtai, and Langfang have been blocked, and Hebei's traffic control has been upgraded. Many steel plants have had a certain impact on their production and sales. Many places have persuaded the return of vehicles with license plates in Hebei, and the transaction volume of steel traders in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has dropped significantly. Most steel plants also choose this time for blast furnace maintenance.
This week, 34 of the 126 blast furnaces in Tangshan area were overhauled (excluding long-term production shutdowns). The total volume of the overhauled blast furnaces is 28,640m3; the weekly output is about 570,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.84%, which is a decrease of 1.72% from last week. A decrease of 1.54%, a 7% decrease from the same period last year.
On the whole, Wang Guoqing said that the steel industry is currently in the traditional off-season, with the impact of the Hebei epidemic superimposed, and the steel transaction volume in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has dropped significantly. However, due to the generally optimistic economic expectations for this year and the strong supporting role of steel costs, steel prices will show high volatility in the short term, and the possibility of a sharp drop is unlikely.